Maxims of Value Investing
“...reassure yourself that any disaster depressing the price is in the past, not the future, and that the company has adequate financial resources to endure current conditions for, say, the next five years.”
“Market timing and worrying about the general market is a refuge of articulate incompetence.”
Don’t invest in any small caps unless cash alone is in excess of liabilities.
“He is the classic value investor with the iron-willed conviction of a Samurai warrior . . . lasered, unwavering, disciplined.”
Never pay more than 10 X all-time peak earnings.
Every three years more than 50% of “deep-value” companies become involved in a merger or acquisition.
Looking for and focusing on Value takes you out of the current market cycle.
Less than 10% of stock portfolios managed along value criteria
YIELD TRAP . . . if bonds look attractive, dividend stocks will do better
Most analysts’ forecasts are little more than linear extrapolations of current trends which seldom hold up over time.
When was the market efficient . . . when IBM was at $110 . . . or when it was at $46?
Strict adherence to value criteria avoids “cognitive limitations”. . Where more information tends to account for worse performance.
Wait for bad days in the market to go shopping from a list of potential buys.
Look for money managers who might be called “the Vatican of Value”.
Performance is usually in inverse proportion to turnover
A share buyback can be a very good indicator that management has its priorities in place.
Investors need DISCIPLINE to protect themselves from the crowd.
Investing for anything less than a 3-5 year market cycle is speculating.
Value investors must be continually re-calculating intrinsic value based on current earnings data. Historically, buying stocks with a low P/E based on trailing earnings produced slightly better results than buying stocks with a low P/E based on estimated earnings.
The corporate investor is interested in assets; the institutional investor is concerned with income and cash flow; the value investor is interested in earnings and dividends.
Myth of the Rear-View Mirror....taking money from assets which performed poorly this year and put them into assets that performed well this year.